Few quick-ish thoughts
So yeah, I've been busy, and some mixed results after my big slump hasn't really improved my motivation. I might just rapid fire a few random facts/strategies that's popped into my consciousness over the last few months (for standard):
1) CM/Recover Mewtwo vs Bronzong interaction
Key damage calculation: 0 Atk Bronzong Explosion vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mewtwo: 355-418 (85.3 - 100.4%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
Assuming no Toxic or Hypnosis hit, 252 HP/4 Def Mewtwo actually beats Bronzong 1v1 most of the time. The chance you get killed by an Explosion at max HP is basically the same chance as a crit. This means, barring a Bronzong that has Toxic, the ideal play (assuming you haven't got something that beats Bronzong even harder like Palkia or Ho-oh or Forry/Skarm, you should just keep spamming Recover to stall out Payback PP. If you Recover back to 100%, you can tank the boom most of the time and still have your Mewtwo around (potentially only to die to Shadow Sneak after but then you have the momentum).
EDIT: Actually never mind you can get the live with just 248 HP/8 Def: 0 Atk Bronzong Explosion vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Mewtwo: 351-414 (84.5 - 99.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
2) Palkia is even more dogshit than Darkrai
This is just me being salty, but hey can you really blame me? The last 3 games I've used this literal dickhead I've missed 95% accurate Spacial Rend twice, both setting the game back multiple steps. You hear me bitching about Darkrai missing all the time, but at least that risk is more obvious and the payoff from playing a Darkrai well and not missing (or even just missing at the right times) is huge. What does Palkia have going for it? A mon that gets owned by probably the most common Pokemon in the tier (SpD Dialga) even when you don't miss? Get the fuck out of here.
I think without a doubt Groudon is probably the most dangerous Pokemon in the tier currently. I'd be even willing to push it to #1 but Kyogre's influence and shaping of the metagame around it is still too much I feel. In terms of game-winning potential, however, Groudon is by far #1. There are so many relatively Ground weak teams in the tier at the moment and it takes very little for an RP Groudon sweep to be possible. There are like 3-4 different kinds of RP Don (3 attacks LO, standard Double Dance, super fat Double Dance, even 3 attacks Leftovers), not to mention things like SubSD Groudon, Paradancer is still quite underrated too. Because Groudon is so hazard resilient, you can outlast its checks like Gira-O and Bronzong relatively easily. This is without even getting into SpD Groudon that allows sunstall to flourish. It also allows annoying shit Ho-oh to be really annoying shit. Pretty much every sun team archetype is either strong or dominant in current metagame (with the exception of maybe sun balance, but even then the Ho-oh sun balances are no joke).
While I think Dialga is potentially still more versatile, I think Groudon is pretty close in terms of its versatility, while being FAR more dangerous in terms of offensive prowess.
I think everyone knows this already so I'm not really going to expand on this tbh
This is not talking about my Scarf Heatran vs Zayele's Latios in Farceus - no, I'm talking about just fat Heatran. You'd think in sun Heatran should just donk Latios but no, it will just keep clicking Draco Meteor and outlast you if there's even 1 layer of hazards up, especially if it has Recover too. Doubly so it they're on rain.
I think purely because its ability to hit Cresselia really hard that it's actually a decent option. You don't hit RP Groudon anywhere near as hard so you definitely need to run the fatter version of mixed Giratina-O to be a more sturdy Groudon check. Use Sball with Outrage so you can at least threaten 2HKOs on both Cresselia and Blissey and also threaten to hit Lugia very hard too. You're a lot worse vs Dialga though.
Requested by susciety. I unfortunately cannot comment since I've had no experience of Skarm's fraud. That being said, the fact that you're kind of mandated to run Blissey with it is kind of a huge bummer.
If you asked me this 2 years ago I'd have trashed water move SD Ray like crazy. I still stand by that Lum SD with a water move is ass. HOWEVER, SD + LO Ray with a water move is actually surprisingly good, especially on Wobbray. The main positives of this is that you destroy fat Groudon immediately at +2, while still hitting move Steel-types really hard. The other main positive is that you can deal a lot of damage to lead Ho-oh right from outset, which Wobbray traditionally hates. It also smacks the shit out of Heatran which Wobbray doesn't like every much either. You come very close to OHKOing Bronzong and slow Jirachi too. The main loss is that you don't automatically kill Forretress, which you kind of need to be able to do on Wobbray because it tends to rely on sheer momentum and Fire moves on everything to spinblock.
Keep in mind this is for SD Ray using Dragon Claw ONLY - DD Ray is using Outrage which already outdamages super effective Aqua Tail so stick that and your choice of Fire/Ground coverage and/or Espeed. It doesn't matter very much which water move you use vs Groudon, although Jolly Waterfall does have a chance to miss the OHKO on Groudon after Rocks so keep that in mind.
The choice between Waterfall and Aqua Tail is actually very interesting. I'd also say if you're running Adamant there's a bigger role to run Waterfall over Jolly. See the below calculations.
Vs Ho-oh:
252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Aqua Tail vs. 208 HP / 0 Def Ho-Oh: 340-402 (83.9 - 99.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Waterfall vs. 208 HP / 0 Def Ho-Oh: 304-358 (75 - 88.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
Vs Bronzong:
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Aqua Tail vs. 252 HP / 8 Def Bronzong: 272-321 (80.4 - 94.9%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
Vs Jirachi:
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Aqua Tail vs. 252 HP / 8 Def Jirachi: 309-364 (76.4 - 90%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock and 1 layer of Spikes
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Waterfall vs. 252 HP / 8 Def Jirachi: 274-323 (67.8 - 79.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock, 1 layer of Spikes, and Leftovers recovery
Vs Forretress:
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Aqua Tail vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Forretress: 232-274 (65.7 - 77.6%) -- 25% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock and 1 layer of Spikes
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Waterfall vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Forretress: 207-244 (58.6 - 69.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock, 1 layer of Spikes, and Leftovers recovery
Vs Skarm:
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Waterfall vs. 252 HP / 16+ Def Skarmory: 186-219 (55.6 - 65.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
+2 252+ Atk Life Orb Rayquaza Aqua Tail vs. 252 HP / 16+ Def Skarmory: 209-247 (62.5 - 73.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
Some of these Aqua Tail calcs look really tempting until you realise that 1) it can miss and 2) factoring in flinch chance, Waterfall actually has a better chance of getting you what you want. The main advantage of Aqua Tail I feel is that you can KO lead Ho-oh with Espeed chip from Deo-S which is very important for Wobbray teams, but Waterfall is better otherwise I think. If you're going to run Jolly Ray, then definitely use Aqua Tail for the higher chance to OHKO support Groudon.
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